Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
