Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
